Dutch housing and mortgage market Q4 2025

The Dutch housing market remained highly active in the fourth quarter of 2025, with 67,227 transactions setting a quarterly record and annual transaction volume rising to around 236,000 homes. Continued sales of former buy-to-let properties supported activity, whilst structural supply shortages persisted and house price growth moderated towards year-end.

Mortgage market activity broadly tracked housing transactions, with total origination reaching EUR 50.5 billion in Q4, the highest quarterly volume on record. Strong participation from first-time buyers and continued activity in the lower and mid-price segments supported overall mortgage activity and origination volumes.

At the same time, interest-only mortgages are coming further into focus as supervisory expectations from DNB increasingly emphasise maturity and refinancing risk over short-term payment affordability. These shifts are already visible in market behaviour, with lenders adjusting pricing and underwriting standards, and broader implications for borrowers and the housing market are expected in 2026.

Main developments

Economic conditions in the Netherlands remained stable towards the end of 2025, with moderate growth, gradually easing inflation and a stable labour market supporting housing demand.

The Dutch housing market recorded exceptionally strong activity in the fourth quarter, with 67,227 transactions marking a quarterly record and annual turnover rising to approximately 236,000 homes. Continued sales of former rental properties supported high turnover, while limited structural supply kept market tightness elevated and house price growth showed signs of moderation towards year-end.

Mortgage market activity strengthened further in Q4, with total volume reaching €50.5 billion, the highest quarterly level ever recorded, broadly in line with record amount of housing transactions. Origination volumes and applications remained elevated, supported by strong participation from first-time buyers and continued activity in the lower and mid-price segments.

At the same time, interest-only mortgages are moving further into focus as supervisory expectations shift from passive run-off to active lifecycle management. While arrears and defaults remain low, De Nederlandsche Bank is increasingly emphasising maturity and refinancing risk rather than in-term affordability, forcing lenders to embed interest-only exposure more explicitly in governance, capital planning and stress testing.

These expectations are already becoming visible in market behaviour. Banks are adjusting pricing through higher interest-only surcharges and, in some cases, tightening product design by lowering maximum interest-only limits, pointing to a gradual shift in how interest-only exposure is managed going into 2026.

Economic indicators

The Dutch economy grew by around 1.9% in 2025, supported mainly by household consumption and government spending, while inflation moderated but remained persistent at 2.8% in December. A stable labour market and continued wage growth supported household purchasing power.

Economics

Economic conditions in the Netherlands remained relatively stable toward the end of 2025, despite ongoing geopolitical and trade-related uncertainty noted in recent assessments by De Nederlandsche Bank (DNB). Economic growth strengthened over the year, with GDP rising to 1.9% in 2025.

Despite higher US trade tariffs, global trade has remained resilient. Companies pushed imports forward to remain ahead of the tariffs. This has supported Dutch exports in 2025, but DNB does not expect this temporary uplift to persist in the coming years. For 2026 and 2027, DNB anticipates a moderation in GDP growth to 1.2% and 1.1%, respectively.

Inflation moderated gradually during 2025 but remained relatively persistent, reaching 2.8% in December. Domestic factors such as wage growth and strong demand for services kept inflation elevated and somewhat above the euro area average of around 2.3%. According to DNB, inflation is expected to decline gradually, reflecting persistent domestic price pressures.

The labour market remained stable, with unemployment broadly around 4% during 2025. Employment levels stayed high and real incomes improved as wage growth outpaced inflation, while continued household consumption and government spending supported overall economic activity. Overall, the macroeconomic backdrop moving into 2026 can be characterised as stable but subdued, providing continued support for housing demand.

Figure 1: Inflation in the Netherlands, end of December 2025 (Source: CBS)

Housing market

The Dutch housing market remained active in the fourth quarter of 2025, supported by strong transaction volumes and continued sales of former rental properties. Despite elevated turnover, market tightness remained high as additional supply was absorbed quickly, while house price growth showed signs of gradual moderation towards year-end.

Transaction volume and housing supply

The Dutch housing market recorded a quarterly record for transaction volumes in the fourth quarter of 2025, highlighting the continued strength of market activity. A total of 67,227 homes were sold in Q4, an increase of 7% quarter-on-quarter and 12% year-on-year, continuing the upward trend observed since early 2025.

On an annual basis, transaction activity remained exceptionally strong. Transaction volume rose to approximately 236,000 homes, up 17% year-on-year compared to 2024. Activity increased steadily throughout the year, indicating sustained demand rather than a temporary year-end effect.

A key driver behind this elevated level of activity was the continued sale of former buy-to-let properties. Throughout 2025, a large number of buy-to-let homes were brought to the market, particularly in urban areas and predominantly in the lower and mid-price segments. Similar to earlier quarters, these properties typically changed hands quickly, either through open market transactions or through direct sales to sitting tenants, contributing to high turnover without materially increasing structural supply. The strong presence of first-time buyers and the high share of smaller homes in transactions underline that activity remains concentrated in the more affordable segments of the market.

This is reflected in housing supply developments towards year-end. The number of homes listed for sale fell to 29,764 at the end of Q4, a 6.3% decrease compared with Q3, following the temporary peak in mid-2025. Despite lower year-end supply levels, available homes continued to be absorbed rapidly.

The market tightness indicator declined from 2.3 in earlier quarters to 1.9 in Q4, signalling a tightening of market conditions towards the end of the year. Although more homes entered the market during 2025, the additional supply was largely matched by demand, leaving overall market tightness elevated and buyer choice limited.

Overall, the housing market in 2025 was characterised by high turnover rather than structural easing. The ongoing reallocation of housing from the rental to the owner-occupied sector supported transaction volumes, while limited net additions to supply meant that underlying scarcity and competition persisted.

Looking ahead, transaction volumes are expected to remain relatively high in early 2026, supported by the continued reallocation of housing from the rental to the owner-occupied sector. As the contribution from former rental properties gradually stabilises, transaction volumes will increasingly depend on underlying supply growth, which remains structurally constrained.

Figure 2: Number of transactions and market tightness, end of December 2025 (Source: CBS / Land Registry / NVM)

House prices

House price growth moderated in the fourth quarter of 2025. The average purchase price declined slightly in Q4, falling by 0.3% quarter-on-quarter to approximately €486,000. Despite this quarterly decline, prices remained clearly higher on an annual basis, with the average purchase price around 5% above the level recorded in Q4 2024.

As in previous quarters, this quarterly decline mainly reflects changes in the transaction mix rather than weakening demand. A relatively large share of transactions involved former rental properties, which are typically priced below the broader market average. This continued shift towards smaller and more affordable homes weighed on the average purchase price towards the end of the year, even as transaction volumes remained high, illustrating how elevated buy-to-let sales can support turnover while temporarily dampening headline price levels.

Underlying price developments remained positive, although momentum softened towards year-end, with the house price index rising by 0.5% in Q4 and year-on-year growth moderating to around 6%, while a small month-on-month decline in December marked the first decrease in a year without indicating a broader reversal.

Looking at 2025 as a whole, house prices increased at a more moderate pace than in the previous year, as strong demand supported by rising incomes and elevated transaction volumes continued to outweigh structurally limited supply. Affordability constraints and higher mortgage rates contributed to a gradual cooling in price growth.

Looking ahead, house prices are expected to continue rising in 2026, supported by the persistent housing shortage and limited new supply. Price growth is likely to align more closely with wage developments than in recent years, broadly consistent with expectations from the DNB that house price growth will moderate towards roughly 4% annually in the coming years. However, if the additional supply from former rental properties continues to fade, competition in the owner-occupied market could intensify again, potentially leading to renewed upward pressure on prices, while the broadly stable policy environment suggests that near-term price dynamics will remain primarily driven by structural shortages, affordability developments and borrowing capacity rather than by new policy interventions.

Figure 3: Development of the house price index (2020=100), end of December 2025 (Source: CBS & Land Registry)

Confirmed governmental policy direction and market implications

The coalition agreement largely confirms the policy direction that has shaped recent developments in the Dutch housing and mortgage market, rather than introducing a structural policy shift. The ambition to increase housing supply towards around 100,000 homes per year is reaffirmed, although announced measures are unlikely to materially change the short-term outlook given persistent constraints related to planning capacity, infrastructure and permitting procedures. As in recent years, policy initiatives primarily influence the long-term trajectory of supply rather than near-term market conditions.

At the same time, the continuation of mid-market rent regulation and the ongoing transition towards taxation based on actual returns in box 3 reinforce the current operating environment for private landlords. Together with the absence of fiscal relief for buy-to-let investors, these policies are likely to sustain the ongoing reallocation of homes from rental to owner-occupation. This supports transaction volumes in the owner-occupied market, while keeping structural pressure on rental availability.

For the mortgage market, the coalition agreement largely confirms the current framework, with the mortgage interest deduction remaining in place. As a result, the policy environment for lenders and borrowers remains broadly unchanged, meaning that housing and mortgage market developments are expected to continue to be driven mainly by structural shortages, affordability dynamics and interest rate movements, rather than by abrupt policy change.

Interest-only mortgages: why interest-only exposure is moving back into focus

For years, Dutch interest-only mortgages have quietly sat on balance sheets, giving borrowers greater affordability and tax advantages while providing lenders with stable cash flows and causing few headaches. Arrears remain low, defaults are rare, and borrowers continue to meet their monthly obligations. Yet beneath this calm surface, a significant shift is underway. Supervisors are no longer content to watch these portfolios run off passively. Instead, they are pressing lenders to demonstrate active control over what remains one of the largest and most distinctive features of the Dutch mortgage market. This section explores why interest-only exposure is moving back into focus: not because something has gone wrong, but because the rules of the game are changing.

Dutch mortgage origination commonly allowed borrowers to finance a substantial share, in the past even up to 100%, of their mortgage on an interest-only basis. From 2011 onwards, sector-driven measures such as adjustments to the Gedragscode Hypothecaire Financieringen (GHF) and stricter National Mortgage Guarantee (NHG) criteria already began to limit fully interest-only structures. Legislative and fiscal changes introduced in 2013 fundamentally accelerated this shift, as mortgage interest tax relief for newly originated interest-only loans was discontinued and underwriting standards tightened. In market practice, this moved new production towards mixed mortgage structures, with interest-only components typically capped at around 50% of the property value. New interest-only origination has therefore been materially reduced, while the outstanding stock remains substantial due to the long contractual maturities of Dutch mortgages.

Figure 4: Interest-only mortgages as share of total outstanding mortgage debt in the Netherlands (Source: DNB)

Despite earlier regulatory changes, interest-only exposure in the Netherlands remains relatively large by international standards. Interest-only mortgages account for around 45% of outstanding Dutch mortgage balances, compared with typically less than 10% in most other European markets. A significant share relates to legacy pre-2013 originations, resulting in a concentration of maturities in the 2035–2038 period, while a more gradual concentration is expected in the 2047–2052 period.

From a supervisory perspective, the Netherlands therefore stands out mainly because of the size and maturity profile of its interest-only stock. The European Central Bank (ECB) has set a broad framework, which De Nederlandsche Bank (DNB) translates into national supervisory expectations. The increased attention does not reflect current credit stress, but a gradual shift towards more active management of long-dated refinancing risks.

Maturity risk rather than near-term affordability pressure

From the supervisory perspective of DNB, within the underlying ECB framework, interest-only mortgages are increasingly assessed based on outcomes at maturity rather than monthly affordability during the loan term. During the term, borrowers primarily service interest, which can remain manageable even when interest rates are higher. The main point of attention therefore lies at maturity, when principal repayment must be addressed through refinancing, accumulated savings, or in some cases the sale of the property.

Backward-looking indicators such as arrears and defaults are considered limited early-warning signals in this context. A large interest-only portfolio can therefore appear stable in current credit data, while still facing refinancing frictions later on if borrowers need to refinance under different lending standards, interest rate levels or income profiles, often around retirement. At the same time, Dutch households generally hold substantial financial buffers, including savings and housing equity, which mitigate repayment risk for a large part of the interest-only population. The Dutch pension system also provides an important source of long-term income security. Since many pre-2013 originations, inflation and nominal income growth have reduced real debt burdens and supported refinancing capacity relative to earlier underwriting assumptions. It is also important to note that the bulk of outstanding interest-only exposure originates from pre-2013 vintages, while post-2013 origination has been subject to stricter underwriting standards, lower loan-to-value ratios and more conservative product structures.

For many borrowers, this structure has functioned well over long periods and has been a deliberate and appropriate choice. Potential frictions tend to arise not from the interest-only product itself, but from changes in refinancing conditions, regulatory constraints or income dynamics over time, particularly when these interact with life events. This explains why interest-only exposure can remain stable in traditional credit metrics while still becoming a point of supervisory attention as portfolios age and refinancing moments approach.

Supervisory tightening: from passive runoff to active lifecycle management

ECB and DNB supervisory perspective

Interest-only lending has not been formally prohibited, but the supervisory framework governing it has changed materially. Rather than allowing legacy portfolios to run off passively, supervisors increasingly expect lenders to demonstrate active lifecycle management of interest-only exposure.

At European level, the European Central Bank (ECB) has emphasised that systemic banks should actively manage long-dated mortgage risks as part of broader expectations around governance, capital planning and balance sheet resilience. At national level, De Nederlandsche Bank (DNB) has reinforced this direction, extending supervisory focus beyond the largest institutions to smaller and mid-sized banks under national supervision. This supervisory approach increasingly translates into expectations that banks hold sufficient capital against long-dated interest-only exposure and embed these portfolios more explicitly in capital planning and stress-testing frameworks, while gradually reducing both interest-only exposure and the overall share of interest-only mortgages on their balance sheets over time.

Although supervisory expectations are broadly aligned, implementation differs across lenders. Larger banks have been subject to enhanced supervisory scrutiny from the ECB for longer and have already begun translating expectations into pricing, portfolio management and product adjustments. Smaller banks are now entering a more intensive implementation phase following recent guidance from their supervisor DNB.

Other mortgage lenders, such as asset managers, pension funds and insurance companies, are not governed by the ECB/DNB banking supervisory framework. As a result, alternative mortgage lenders are not subject to the same balance sheet pressures faced by banks. Supervisory pressure to reduce mortgage exposure, and therefore to limit the inflow of new interest-only mortgages, is likely to remain largely confined to banks.

AFM conduct perspective

From a conduct perspective, the Dutch Authority for the Financial Markets (AFM) approaches interest-only lending from a different angle, focusing primarily on borrower affordability, duty of care and customer engagement throughout the life of the loan. Supervision has evolved from awareness campaigns towards more structured borrower engagement aimed at ensuring that households understand the long-term implications of interest-only mortgages.

Over a five-year period, lenders contacted approximately 1.68 million borrowers about their interest-only exposure. During this time, the share of borrowers classified as elevated risk declined significantly, largely reflecting rising house prices rather than structural changes in loan behaviour.

Importantly, the AFM has repeatedly stated that borrowers whose interest-only mortgages remain affordable today and are expected to remain sustainable at refinancing should be able to continue living in their homes without undue concern. Forward-looking affordability assessments are therefore intended to identify potential future constraints at an early stage, rather than to signal widespread repayment risks.

Within the ECB framework, DNB increasingly treats interest-only exposure as a portfolio-level consideration that must be embedded in stress testing and capital planning. This portfolio-oriented supervisory focus does not always fully align with the AFM’s conduct perspective, which prioritises individual borrower affordability and the principle that sustainable interest-only structures can remain appropriate for many households.

Implications for the Dutch mortgage market

Supervisory attention to interest-only mortgages is increasingly visible in market behaviour. Rather than reflecting acute credit concerns, current developments mainly relate to how lenders manage long-dated exposures and future refinancing moments. The effects are gradual and differ across lender types, resulting in a more differentiated market rather than a uniform tightening.

Pricing adjustments across lenders

One of the most visible developments has been the gradual increase in interest-only surcharges, i.e. the rate pick-up vs. annuity mortgages. Banks were generally the first to raise pricing, reflecting higher governance requirements, lifecycle management costs and the need to manage new production volumes. Smaller banks have followed with similar adjustments.

Non-bank lenders have also increased interest-only surcharges in recent periods. This reflects market-wide pricing dynamics, rather than a structural move away from interest-only lending itself. In practice, pricing has become a primary tool to balance production volumes and risk-adjusted returns across mortgage types.

Figure 5: Interest-only mortgage surcharge trends in bps by lender type (Source: Lender websites)

Gradual reduction of interest-only exposure on bank balance sheets

Public disclosures indicate that several Dutch banks have already shown a gradual decline in the share of interest-only mortgages on their balance sheets over recent years. This development could be attributed to the has taken place within a supervisory environment shaped by the ECB and DNB, where increased attention to lifecycle management and maturity risks has influenced lender behaviour over time.

In practice, however, the observed decline appears to reflect stricter underwriting criteria, increased use of NHG mortgages and fiscal changes that have reduced demand for interest-only structures. Pricing adjustments may have contributed at the margin, but the overall trend mainly reflects gradual shifts in product mix and borrower behaviour rather than a supply-driven reduction.

Banks	2023	2024	2025
Rabobank	50%	↓49%	↓48%
ABN AMRO	42%	↓39%	↓37%
ASN	45%	↓42%	↓40%
Achmea Bank	40%	↓34%

Figure 6: Interest-only mortgage share on selected Dutch bank balance sheets, 2023–2025 (Source: Bank disclosures)

Concrete tightening in product design

A further concrete market signal of this transition has emerged through recent product policy adjustments. Rabobank has recently announced a significant tightening of its interest-only mortgage lending policy, reducing the maximum interest-only component in new mortgages to 30% and introducing an absolute cap of EUR 150,000. This move represents a clear step beyond earlier pricing adjustments and gradual portfolio developments, and effectively establishes an initial reference point within the Dutch banking market.

Given the shared supervisory framework and comparable balance sheet dynamics among the Dutch large banks, it is expected that other major banks will reassess their own interest-only limits over time. Smaller banks, which also fall under DNB supervision and are currently entering a more intensive implementation phase, may subsequently review their interest-only policies as supervisory expectations continue to be translated into practice.

Diverging responses between bank and non-bank lenders

At the same time, this development should not be interpreted as a fixed or uniform outcome for the broader mortgage market. Product design decisions remain influenced by portfolio preferences, and different regulatory and supervisory constraints, meaning that outcomes can differ across lenders and do not necessarily imply a single market-wide direction for interest-only lending.

Non-bank lenders are not subject to banking supervision, but operate within the same Dutch mortgage lending framework as banks, including the Temporary Mortgage Credit Regulations (TRHK) and the Code of Conduct for Mortgage Lending (Gedragscode Hypothecaire Financieringen, GHF). These standards focus on borrower affordability and sustainability over the life of the loan. Where an interest-only structure meets these criteria, additional restrictions are not required purely for portfolio-level considerations.

Institutional investors such as pension funds and insurance companies invest directly in Dutch residential mortgages through non-bank lenders. Interest-only pricing at non-bank lenders has therefore also adjusted in recent periods. These adjustments are aimed at maintaining a balanced production mix rather than reducing interest-only lending altogether.

Implications for consumers: refinancing capacity, mobility and policy-driven frictions

While supervisory measures primarily target long-dated portfolio risks at lender level, their effects ultimately appear at borrower level. The tightening of interest-only policies does not create immediate payment stress, but mainly reduces flexibility at moments when mortgage structures need to be adjusted.

Who is affected and when the impact materialises

The impact is mainly concentrated among households with existing interest-only exposure that need to refinance or adjust their mortgage, for example when moving home, following a divorce or separation, or at the end of a fixed-rate period. This mainly concerns owner-occupiers with legacy interest-only components, often within mixed mortgage structures. First-time buyers are largely unaffected, as they predominantly use amortising mortgages and NHG-backed loans do not include interest-only structures.

Within the existing borrower population, effects differ. Households with substantial housing equity or savings generally retain sufficient flexibility to adjust. Borrowers with limited buffers or a stronger reliance on interest-only structures for cash-flow management may face tighter constraints when refinancing.

Importantly, these effects do not arise during the ongoing loan term. They become relevant only at refinancing or life-cycle moments, when borrowers are assessed under current lending standards rather than historical conditions. A lower permissible interest-only share can then require a larger amortising component, even when the total loan balance remains unchanged.

Higher payments without higher debt

The main mechanism is a shift in repayment structure rather than increased leverage. Lower interest-only caps can raise monthly payments because a larger share of the mortgage must amortise. Refinancing capacity may therefore decline due to product design rather than new borrowing. In practice, some households may fall outside affordability thresholds despite stable loan balances.

Mobility, retirement and borrower outcomes

Tighter interest-only limits can also influence housing mobility. Borrowers moving home may no longer replicate the repayment structure of their existing mortgage, which can reduce borrowing capacity or delay relocation decisions.

Interest-only mortgages are more common among older borrower groups. Around retirement, refinancing assessments become more conservative as income declines, while product limits may require a higher amortising share. Constraints in these cases reflect the interaction between affordability testing and product rules rather than underlying credit deterioration.

For a smaller group of borrowers with limited buffers, tighter caps may lead to difficult choices such as higher amortisation or postponed mobility. These outcomes should be seen as tail risks rather than base-case scenarios.

Policy interaction

Recent product adjustments, including explicit caps on interest-only shares, illustrate how supervisory expectations increasingly translate into concrete lending policies. While affordability rules under the TRHK aim to prevent overextension, their interaction with tighter product limits can create frictions at refinancing moments. Balancing portfolio risk management with borrower flexibility will therefore remain an ongoing consideration as these developments evolve.

Looking ahead: monitoring a shifting landscape

The outlook for interest-only mortgages remains dynamic. The regulatory topic continues to evolve, but the overall direction is becoming clearer, with smaller banks gradually moving in line with earlier adjustments by larger institutions. Alongside pricing changes, some banks have begun tightening product design, including explicit limits on interest-only components, reflecting supervisory expectations and capital requirements.

The market appears to be moving towards a new equilibrium, where higher interest-only spreads increasingly reflects the tighter supervisory stance on banks. If spreads remain structurally higher, interest-only lending may continue to be economically attractive within revised balance sheet frameworks, potentially supporting renewed lender interest over time. Non-bank lenders are more likely to respond primarily through pricing rather than structural product restrictions.

Mortgage market

The Dutch mortgage market grew further in the fourth quarter of 2025, with volumes reaching approximately €50.5 billion, up 12.9% from Q3 and 18.3% year-on-year. The 10-year fixed-rate period remained the most popular choice, continuing to account for the majority of applications, while NHG-backed mortgages represented around one-third of the market, supported by the relatively high share of affordable transactions.

Mortgage volume and applications

Mortgage activity remained strong in the fourth quarter of 2025, reflecting continued high turnover in the housing market. Total mortgage volume reached approximately €50.5 billion in Q4, marking the highest quarterly volume ever recorded, an increase of 12.9% quarter-on-quarter and 18.3% year-on-year. The number of originated mortgages rose to around 126,000, up 9.6% compared with the previous quarter, confirming that origination volumes continued to move broadly in line with housing market activity.

The increase in mortgage production was primarily driven by elevated transaction volumes, supported by continued sales of former rental properties and strong participation from first-time buyers. The relatively high share of transactions in the lower and mid-price segments contributed to broad-based mortgage growth, while slightly higher average loan sizes also supported total production. For 2025 as a whole, total mortgage origination amounted to roughly €174 billion, significantly above the €139 billion recorded a year earlier, underlining the strong recovery in market activity compared with 2024.

Mortgage applications also increased towards year-end, rising to approximately 147,800 in Q4, a 10.2% increase quarter-on-quarter and 11.6% year-on-year, bringing total applications in 2025 to around 563,000. The continued strength in applications indicates that underlying demand remained resilient heading into 2026. NHG-backed mortgages continued to represent around one-third of total origination, supported by the availability of relatively affordable homes through buy-to-let sales, although the growing share of properties above the NHG threshold placed some downward pressure on the overall NHG share. The 10-year fixed-rate period remained the most commonly selected mortgage term, reflecting borrowers’ focus on balancing borrowing capacity with expectations for future interest rate developments.

Overall, mortgage activity in 2025 was underpinned by continued turnover in the lower and mid-price segments, a stable labour market, and financing choices shaped by affordability considerations rather than shifts in rate expectations alone. The high level of applications points to sustained momentum heading into 2026.

Figure 7: Mortgage volume and number of originated mortgages, end of December2025 (Source: Land Registry)

Mortgage interest rates and spreads

The 10-year EUR swap rate moved within a narrow range during the third quarter, fluctuating around the 2.6% to 2.7% level as inflation in both the euro area and the United States continued to ease and global rate expectations stabilised. Dutch mortgage lenders adjusted their rates only gradually, resulting in mortgage pricing that remained relatively stable across most fixed-rate periods and risk classes. Overall, mortgage spreads remained broadly steady throughout the quarter. Pricing dynamics were shaped more by competition and continued activity in the housing market than by changes in underlying funding costs, resulting in a relatively calm rate environment compared to earlier this year.

Figure 8: Interest rates 10-, 20- and 30 years mortgages (10-day moving average), December 2025 (Source: DMFCO)

Figure 9: Spreads on 10-, 20- and 30 years mortgages (10-day moving average), December 2025 (Source: DMFCO)

Annex I: Key indicators

Indicator	Q4 2024	Q1 2025	Q2 2025	Q3 2025	Q4 2025	QoQ	YoY
Consumer confidence	75	66	64	68	79	+11 points	+4 points
Housing market confidence	96	97	93	97	96	-1 points	0 points
Unemployment	3.7%	3.9%	3.8%	4.0%	4.0%	0.0%	+0.3%
Inflation	4.1%	3.7%	3.1%	3.3%	2.8%	-0.5%	-1.3%
Mortgage applications	132,534	142,076	139,453	134,208	147,845	+10.2%	+11.6%
Mortgage volume (in billions)	€42.67	€37.01	€41.37	€44.70	€50.47	+12.9%	+18.3%
Number of originated mortgages	111,707	98,195	109,137	115,028	126,038	+9.6%	+12.8%
House price index (2020=100)	143.3	146.7	149.8	151.6	151.4	-0.1%	+5.7%
Average purchase price	€462,251	€469,923	€472,721	€487,101	€485,526	-0.3%	+5.0%
Transactions	59,928	51,407	57,412	62,582	67,227	+7.4%	+12.2%
ECB refinancing rate	3.00%	2.65%	2.00%	2.15%	2.15%	0.0%	-0.85%
10-years Swap rate	2.35%	2.52%	2.63%	2.74%	2.97%	+0.23%	+0.62%
10-years Dutch Government bond rate	2.59%	2.96%	2.81%	2.85%	2.85%	0.0%	+0.26%
10-years German Government bond rate	2.37%	2.73%	2.53%	2.70%	2.96%	+0.26%	+0.59%
10-years mortgage interest rate	3.74%	3.98%	3.71%	3.76%	4.00%	+0.24%	+0.2%
20-years mortgage interest rate	3.88%	4.11%	4.03%	4.05%	4.28%	+0.23%	+0.40%
30-years mortgage interest rate	4.03%	4.14%	4.11%	4.14%	4.33%	+0.19%	+0.30%
10-years mortgage spread (bps)	148	138	124	122	119	-3 bps	-29 bps
20-years mortgage spread (bps)	160	144	138	136	131	-5 bps	-29 bps
30-years mortgage spread (bps)	175	149	147	144	138	-6 bps	-37 bps

Definitions

Indicator	Source	Definition
Unemployment	CBS	The number of people who are between 15 and 75 years old who are not in work but are actively searching for paid work and are directly available to work
Housing market confidence	VEH	A measure of confidence in the Dutch owner-occupied housing market or willingness to purchase a house
Consumer confidence	CBS	Data (seasonally adjusted) on Dutch consumers' sentiment and expectations regarding general economic developments and their financial situation. At a value of 100, the share of pessimists equals the share of optimists.
GDP	CBS	The size of an economy by taking the sum of final uses of goods and services (final consumption/gross capital formation) plus exports and minus imports
House prices	CBS /Kadaster	All sales transactions recorded by Kadaster as well as the municipal valuation of all houses in the Netherlands
Housing shortage	ABF research	The difference between the outstanding demand for housing (demand side) and the available supply
Market share	Kadaster	The market shares of different lenders are determined, based on mortgage registrations
Transactions	Kadaster	Number of house sales registered and conducted by a notary
Market tightness indicator	NVM	An approximation of the number of houses for sale per potential buyer in the housing market. The NVM covers approximately 75% of the market
Mortgage volume	Kadaster	The total annual mortgage turnover together with the total number of mortgages provided annually
Newly built properties	CBS	Number of new constructions added to the existing stock, from the Key Register of Addresses and Buildings
Granted permits	CBS	Number of granted building permits as documented in the Housing Act
Affordability	Calcasa	The percentage of the net monthly income spent on net housing costs
Mortgage spreads	DMFCO	The difference between the mortgage interest rate and the interest rate on a 7-year swap